Predict Next Weeks Top 10

[Hassan]

Heres how i think the top 10 will be on sunday:

1: mad world
2: the dorkness
3: kelly & ozzy
4: bo selecta
5: the idols
6: will young
7: black eyed peas
8: atomic kitten
9: suga****s
10: blue + co.

[Mikey]

Firstly Will Young will probably climb a few places as he is on World Idol on Xmas day, so his sales for his single should see it climb.

Top 10 looks like this for next week
1 Gary Jules
2 The Darkness
3 Will Young
4 Kelly & Ozzy
5 Avid Merrion
6 Black Eyed Peas
7 Suga****s
8 Atomic Kitten
9 Blue
10 The Idols

[XxsuziexX]

1.gary jules
2.darkness
3.kelly and ozzy
4.will young
5.avid merrion
6.black eyed peas
7.the idols
8.suga****s
9.shane ritchie
10.atomic kitten

[DSQ]

1 (1) Michael Andrews feat. Gary Jules - Mad World
2 (2) The Darkness - Christmas Time (Don't Let The Bells End)
3 (3) Kelly & Ozzy Osbourne - Changes
4 (6) Will Young - Leave Right Now
5 (5) The Idols - Happy Xmas (War Is Over)
6 (4) Avid Merrion - Proper Crim-bo!
7 (7) Black Eyed Peas - Shut Up
8 (9) Shane Richie - I'm Your Man
9 (8) Atomic Kitten feat. Kool & The Gang - Ladies Night
10 (16) Outkast - Hey Ya

I can see climbs for such acts as: Katie Melua, UB40 & United Colours Of Sound, Evanescence, Girls Aloud, Kevin Lyttle, Nelly Furtado, Lost Brothers, Fatman Scoop feat. Crooklyn Clan, Busted, Lemar, Ja Rule and possible re-entries from Britney Spears feat. Madonna, Alex Parks and Jamelia.

[Mikey]

Sorry DSQ you won't see re-entries no more in the Top 40 chart, there is a new ruling from OCC, that re-entries will no longer be legiable (dam can't spell the word properly) for the charts.

[DSQ]

Why is this?!? Is there an article or something on it?!? Thanks

[Solger]

(1) 1 Michael Andrews / Gary Jules
(2) 2 Darkness
(3) 3 Ozzy and Kelly Osbourne
(6) 4 Will Young
(7) 5 Black Eyed Peas
(5) 6 Idols
(4) 7 Avid Merrion
(9) 8 Shane Ritchie
(8) 9 Atomic Kitten / Kool and the Gang
(10) 10 Suga****s
(17) 11 Katie Melua
(14) 12 Westlife
(11) 13 Blue / Stevie Wonder
(16) 14 Outcast
(12) 15 Ultrabeat
(18) 16 Evanessence
(20) 17 Girls Aloud
(15) 18 Cheeky Girls
(22) 19 Simply Red
(13) 20 Cliff Richard

Hi guys. I just joined this site. Above is my speculative tip for next week's Top 20. I have to admit I have been so out of touch that I haven't even heard all of these songs, so this is based partly on familiarity with the artists in general, aided by a dim and distant past as a singles chart analysis hobbyist in my teens! The premises on which I am working here include:

(a) That the Christmas-themed songs will fall in sales significantly faster than the others, but since Christmas is still to come for much of this week they won't be able to dive completely out of the picture until the week after; it may be that the falls I am expecting this week are unrealistically sharp, but it remains to be seen;

(b) That in last week's chart the apparently very rapid falls for Will Young, Black Eyed Peas, Shane Ritchie and Westlife were largely illusions caused by the huge influx of new entries above, but that these are established, mature hits with the early week sales removed from the equation, so they are likely to fare better than some of the new entries that overtook them this week on a first week sales boost but will fall back faster than them. This said, I haven't heard Ultrabeat's, Blue's or Atomic Kitten's singles, so they may do better than I'm predicting in Week two if they have the necessary endurance factor;

(c) Outcast's rise back up the chart was something of a freak blip and it will in real terms fall in sales as normal this week but hold its place in the falling pack and therefore appear to rise a few more places;

(d) Katie Melua's single which has dropped back seven places since its release two weeks ago has, I am presuming, in real terms held almost level, and will only this week begin to dip significantly in sales; but it will do so at a gentler incline than others around it, as a result of which it will appear to go back up the chart several places, with a fair chance of regaining the Top 10 the following week before falling back at the normal rate. Again, my prediction here might be a little optimistic, but time will tell.

What could go wrong... is that sales are so very low anyway and the mood of the chart is still significantly pre-Christmasy so that the actual movements are much smaller than those predicted in each direction, but the directions suggested will be found more strongly the week after.

All comments welcome.

[Michael188]

Surely, songs are being stopped from re-entering the top 75 once they have dropped out. This is due to lots of singles climbing back into the chart after being put in bargain bins etc. It seems a strange concept to stop songs climbing up when they are still in the top 75, doesn't seem fait whatsoever. Not saying i'm right, its just it makes more sense. To me anyway!

I like the thoughtfullness that you have constructed your top 20 solger! It makes perfect sense to me, but perhaps not so many jumping up the chart, single sales will probably decrease a lot this week, album sales i'm figuring will still be very high as people buy there last minute gifts. Next week there will be huge falls for christmas songs,my guess is that the chart will have a bit of movement but will stay more or less the same...

[Hitstastic]

Here is my prediction for the UK Singles Chart (28/12/03):-
01) 01. Michael Andrews & Gary Jules - Mad World
02) 02. The Darkness - Christmas Time (Don't Let The Bells End)
03) 03. Ozzy Osbourne & Kelly Osbourne - Changes
04) 04. Avid Merrion - Proper Crimbo
06) 05. Will Young - Leave Right Now
07) 06. Black Eyed Peas - Shut Up
05) 07. The Idols - Happy Xmas
09) 08. Shane Richie - I'm Your Man
12) 09. Ultrabeat - Feelin' Fine
08) 10. Atomic Kitten feat. Kool & The Gang - Ladies Night

Imagine that next weeks UK Top 40 are ALL non-movers. That would be weird. Especially if songs can not re-enter the chart. Why have the OCC done this??? We'll have a "week after Christmas" chart like the one in 1980. Well, apparently all the top 40 singles that particular week were all non-movers - remember reading it years ago in the Guiness Book Of Hit Singles.

See ya later

[rmbod]

Sorry DSQ you won't see re-entries no more in the Top 40 chart, there is a new ruling from OCC, that re-entries will no longer be legiable (dam can't spell the word properly) for the charts.


I thought singles were allowed to re-enter the top 40/75 as long as the sales increase was below 5%.

[Hassan]

OK, I've changed my mind. Heres how i think it will go now:

1: mad world
2: dorkness
3: kelly & ozzy
4: will young
5: bo selecta
6: black eyed peas
7: the idols
8: atomic kitten
9: suga****s
10: shane richie

[James121]

(01) (-) Michael Andrews Feat. Gary Jules - Mad World
(02) (-) The Darkness - Christmas Time (Don't Let The Bells End)
(03) (6) Will Young - Leave Right Now
(04) (3) Kelly & Ozzy Ozbourne - Changes
(05) (-) The Idols - Happy Xmas (WAr Is Over)
(06) (4) Bo Selecta - Proper Crimbo
(07) (5) The Black Eyed Peas - Shut Up
(08) (-) Atomic Kitten Feat. Kool & The Gang - Ladies Night
(09) (10) Suga****s - Too Lost In You
(10) (9) Shane Richie - I'm Your Man

I don't think there will be a lot of movement, i could be completely wrong tho, i was never good at predicitions!

[James121]

Grrr, The Black Eyed Peas were at No7 last week, i know!

[Solger]

Hi Michael. Glad my reasoning makes sense to you! You lend support to my 'What could go wrong...' section.

What I'm tempted to do now is offer an alternative prediction that gives slightly more credit to the endurance prospects of the current Christmas-themed songs and the new entries last week in the 8-12 region. It will be interesting to see which model proves closer to the truth come Sunday.

Having said this, oddly enough I had a very strange dream last night in which there was a huge climb by a pre-established hit back up to No. 2; on this basis, given Mikey's comments about Will Young's expected resurgence, I'm going to plump for it being he who jumps back up, though this might prove completely wrong. Also in this dream, although in this thread my prediction of a climb to No. 5 is more optimistic than anyone else's for the positional resurgence of the BlackEyed Peas, the suggestion was that they had climbed back higher still to about No. 4. And I had the distinct sense that The Darkness actually tumbled so fast in sales that they fell to about No. 4 too. Problem is, they can't both be there, so I'm going to have to keep the Black Eyed Peas at No. 5.

This form for the new week's chart is hard to believe, and perhaps it is foolish of me to take such a dream seriously at all; but I'm going to have a go at seeing how it could work out in the chart here. This defies most of my usual observations about chart behaviour, and I'll be more surprised if it comes true than not. But just for fun, here goes:

(1) 1 Michael Andrews / Gary Jules
(6) 2 Will Young
(3) 3 Kelly and Ozzy Osbourne
(2) 4 Darkness
(7) 5 Black Eyed Peas
(5) 6 Idols
(4) 7 Avid Merrion
(9) 8 Shane Ritchie
(8) 9 Atomic Kitten / Kool and the Gang
(10) 10 Suga****s
(12) 11 Ultrabeat
(19) 12 UB40 / United Colours of Sound
(11) 13 Blue / Stevie Wonder
(17) 14 Katie Melua
(14) 15 Westlife
(16) 16 Outcast
(15) 17 Cheeky Girls
(13) 18 Cliff Richard
(18) 19 Evanessence
(20) 20 Girls Aloud

[Solger]

PS: I forgot to mention that my dream indicated an unexpectedly big climb back up the chart for UB40, which is why I have factored in a leap to No. 12 for them!

[DSQ]

Mid-week chart is as follows:

1 (1) Michael Andrews feat. Gary Jules - Mad World
2 (2) The Darkness - Christmas Time (Don't Let The Bells End)
3 (4) Avid Merrion - Proper Crim-bo!
4 (3) Ozzy & Kelly Osbourne - Changes
5 (6) Will Young - Leave Right Now
6 (5) Idols - Happy Xmas (War Is Over)
7 (7) Black Eyed Peas - Shut Up
8 (10) Suga****s - Too Lost In You
9 (9) Shane Richie - I'm Your Man
10 (12) Ultrabeat - Feelin' Fine

This however isn't official - so don't go 100% believing it - sounds about right though.

[Mikey]

If you want to know about the new ruling from OCC visit this site http://www.bpi.co.uk/flashmainindex.html but please do not post any information on this site as it has a copyright, surf charts on the menu and you will find Chart Eligibilility Rules

[Michael188]

I won't predict a top 10 for this week , i agree with the posts on here. This week is so boring, with low sales and no new entries, its horrible! Thats one thig i hate about new year. Low sales means any old rubbish performs well, e.g Victoria Beckham and SClub8, groan.

[Solger]

I wrote in my previous message at the end of Tuesday in this very thread

'I had a very strange dream last night in which there was a huge climb by a pre-established hit back up to No. 2.... And I had the distinct sense that The Darkness actually tumbled so fast in sales that they fell to about No. 4 too.... PS: I forgot to mention that my dream indicated an unexpectedly big climb back up the chart for UB40, which is why I have factored in a leap to No. 12 for them!.'

Well, looks like the dream came more or less true but my associated predictions didn't. Darkness fell to No. 3 when everyone was predicting they would stay at No. 2 - so here the dream was right; and it was right that a pre-established hit would make an unexpectedly big climb back up the chart to No. 2 - although I didn't identify who that would be. Finally, the dream foresaw UB40 climbing unexpectedly far back up the chart (in view of the fact that the associated rugby event had already ended the previous week, and that week they had fallen!) - though I didn't correctly guess that it would be by just four places to No.15, interpreting something rather more dramatic than that from the dream.

Dreams tend to tell the truth about the future - but it's not generally easy to interpret them exactly enough to make failsafe bets about chart positions etc.!

[Solger]

On 24 December, I wrote in this thread:

'I had a very strange dream last night in which... although in this thread my prediction of a climb to No. 5 is more optimistic than anyone else's for the positional resurgence of the BlackEyed Peas, the suggestion was that they had climbed back higher still to about No. 4'.

This was the one happening forseen by my dream that did not come true in the immediately following week's chart. (All the others did: UB40's unexpectedly high climb; an unexpected climb back up to No.2 for an established hit, and an unexpected fall in position for The Darkness).

But it has done now too, a week later. All the way back up from No. 7 to No. 4 for the Black Eyed Peas two weeks after they fell to No. 7.

[footyfan88]

i think the top ten on sunday will be

1. All This Time - Michelle McManus
2. Mad Word - Michael Andrews/Gary Jules
3. Changes - Ozzy + Kelly Osbourne
4. Everybody Cries - Liberty X
5. Milkshake - Kelis
6. Shut Up - Black Eyed Peas
7. Leave Right Now - Will Young
8. Let Your Head Go/This Groove - Victoria Beckham
9. I'm Your Man - Shane Ritchie
10. Bring It On - Alistair Griffin

[Richard Allen]

1: Michelle McManus - All This Time
2: Michael Andrews/Gary Jules - Mad Word
3: Ozzy & Kelly Osbourne - Changes
4: Kelis - Milkshake
5: Black Eyed Peas - Shut Up
6: Boogie Pimps - Somebody To Love
7: Will Young - Leave Right Now
8: Sean Paul feat. Sasha - I'm Still In Love With You
9: Victoria Beckham - This Groove/Let Your Head Go
10: Alistiar Griffin - Bring It On