HOLLYWOOD (Top40 Charts) - The summer box office has been famously dominated by pictures soaring to No. 1 and then ceding the top spot in their second weekend, but that could change this weekend as reigning champ "
American Pie 2" faces little competition among the new releases.
Of Friday's three wide openers, "Captain Corelli's Mandolin" (Universal) and "Rat Race" (Paramount) lack a specific genre hook, while "American Outlaws" (Warner Bros.) could be shot down by other difficulties.
Meanwhile, "Pie 2" bowed so big last weekend -- at $45.1 million -- that even a whopping 60% dropoff would leave the picture dishing up $18 million in its second session. A better hold than that could guarantee the "Pie" sequel becomes the first picture in over two months to repeat at No. 1.
"Captain Corelli's Mandolin," a World War II romancer that bowed overseas several months ago, plays sweetest with older females. "And that's a very tough audience," Universal distribution president Nikki Rocco noted. "They sit back and don't go opening weekend."
Universal believes the picture can succeed only on long legs, and so "Captain" marches out in just 1,594 locations -- about half the total of this summer's big guns. "Not every film needs to be in 3,000 playdates," Rocco said. "We wanted to open as many markets as possible, but I didn't want to saturate any one market. It's not a film that requires 15 theaters in a market."
Paramount similarly views "Rat Race" as a potential word-of-mouth comedy. Directed by Jerry Zucker ("Airplane!"), the picture's 1,001 sneaks Saturday were 60% full, with older-skewing audiences evenly split between males and femmes. "We're expecting good things," Paramount distribution president Wayne Lewellen insisted. But as with "Captain," those box office good things could be limited to the $13 million-$19 million range this weekend if the non-genre film falls between demo cracks.
The marketing of "Rat" has been trapped by an ensemble cast that runs the gamut of age demos. Over-emphasis on 40-plus thesps such as Whoopi Goldberg and John Cleese could turn off the Clearasil set, while hyping Seth Green, Breckin Meyer or Cuba Gooding Jr. to the Geritol crowd could prove equally unproductive.
As a straight-ahead Western, "American Outlaws" has attracted interest mostly among young males, a group of moviegoers still likely to split their votes among current players like "Rush Hour 2," "Planet of the Apes" and "Jurassic Park III."
Warner Bros. is taking heart in a late spike in interest among prospective moviegoers for the "Outlaws," which stars Colin Farrell as Jesse James. "The tracking has jumped dramatically," Warners distribution president Dan Fellman said. "Young males have definitely taken an interest in this movie." It's worth noting that marketing movies that fall between the cracks of summer moviegoers' oh-so-casual tastes is such a problem that even high-quality fare can be chopped to pieces in the seasonal blender.
There was a time was when buzz was high for "Mandolin." But Universal's hopes for the high-profile adaptation of Louis De Bernieres' bestseller have gone a bit flat following an off-key spring opening in the U.K.
Problems with the British bow were mostly due to scheduling against "Bridget Jones's Diary," which was hugely popular in the U.K. But the experience seems to have lowered domestic expectations for "Mandolin," despite a cast and production of awards-consideration caliber - unusual for a summer release. The picture represents director John Madden's first outing since 1998 best picture Oscar winner "Shakespeare in Love," and boasts Nicolas Cage and Penelope Cruz as stars.
